Market Reliability Index
Which leagues tend to follow the bookies' prices and which throw up the most upsets? Ranked by how often favourites win, draw or get beaten - you can choose the leagues and teams you trust
Data updated 13 October 2026.
Leagues ranked by price reliability
Select any column heading to re-sort. On smaller screens swipe sideways to see every column; the league name stays pinned. Small-sample leagues are flagged when fewer than 30 priced matches have been played. Use the share buttons to download or post the table.
Market Reliability Index46 leagues · updated 13 October 2026
| Greek Super League | 27/41 | 66% | +10.3% | 12% | 22% | 22% | 68% | 62% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgian Pro League | 44/71 | 62% | +11.6% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 63% | 61% | |
| Champions League | 66/107 | 62% | +1.8% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 65% | 52% | |
| Czech First League | 47/78 | 60% | +10.8% | 19% | 21% | 21% | 57% | 67% | |
| Austrian Bundesliga | 28/47 | 60% | +4.9% | 21% | 19% | 19% | 71% | 42% | |
| Europa Conference League | 151/257 | 59% | -6.7% | 16% | 25% | 25% | 62% | 53% | |
| Europa League | 56/98 | 57% | -4.2% | 24% | 19% | 19% | 68% | 41% | |
| National League | 88/154 | 57% | +8.6% | 25% | 18% | 18% | 55% | 63% | |
| Eliteserien | 99/175 | 57% | -3.6% | 23% | 20% | 20% | 61% | 46% | |
| UEFA Nations League | 58/103 | 56% | -8.1% | 18% | 26% | 26% | 55% | 59% | |
| Eerste Divisie | 56/100 | 56% | +3.7% | 26% | 18% | 18% | 67% | 35% | |
| La Liga | 43/77 | 56% | -1.2% | 18% | 26% | 26% | 55% | 59% | |
| Ekstraklasa | 48/88 | 55% | +12.1% | 24% | 22% | 22% | 55% | 52% | |
| J League | 48/88 | 55% | +1.9% | 24% | 22% | 22% | 58% | 50% | |
| Serie A | 31/57 | 54% | -7.3% | 26% | 19% | 19% | 57% | 50% | |
| Primeira Liga | 38/70 | 54% | -8.7% | 20% | 26% | 26% | 54% | 55% | |
| Copa Libertadores | 81/150 | 54% | -5.7% | 20% | 26% | 26% | 55% | 50% | |
| Saudi Pro League | 37/69 | 54% | -18.5% | 17% | 29% | 29% | 50% | 59% | |
| Bundesliga | 24/45 | 53% | -6.6% | 27% | 20% | 20% | 60% | 40% | |
| Swiss Super League | 32/60 | 53% | -3.2% | 30% | 17% | 17% | 50% | 60% | |
| Scottish Championship | 25/47 | 53% | -4.1% | 23% | 23% | 23% | 52% | 56% | |
| Eredivisie | 38/72 | 53% | -14.2% | 18% | 29% | 29% | 40% | 76% | |
| Croatian First League | 23/44 | 52% | -17.9% | 30% | 18% | 18% | 68% | 25% | |
| Allsvenskan | 94/180 | 52% | -6.8% | 26% | 22% | 22% | 55% | 48% | |
| Bundesliga 2 | 32/62 | 52% | +7.2% | 19% | 29% | 29% | 50% | 56% | |
| National League North | 67/132 | 51% | +0.2% | 30% | 20% | 20% | 56% | 39% | |
| Danish Superliga | 30/59 | 51% | -11.0% | 20% | 29% | 29% | 57% | 42% | |
| Brazil Serie A | 151/297 | 51% | -4.3% | 21% | 28% | 28% | 54% | 40% | |
| Ligue 1 | 27/54 | 50% | -9.0% | 24% | 26% | 26% | 54% | 42% | |
| Segunda Division | 49/99 | 50% | -2.7% | 29% | 21% | 21% | 50% | 48% | |
| MLS | 205/420 | 49% | -9.5% | 26% | 26% | 26% | 50% | 44% | |
| Colombian Primera Division | 157/325 | 48% | -10.9% | 20% | 32% | 32% | 50% | 44% | |
| Turkish Super Lig | 30/63 | 48% | -15.7% | 30% | 22% | 22% | 48% | 47% | |
| 3. Liga | 38/80 | 48% | -6.8% | 30% | 23% | 23% | 46% | 50% | |
| National League South | 60/127 | 47% | -8.0% | 25% | 28% | 28% | 40% | 63% | |
| Premier League | 27/59 | 46% | -16.1% | 22% | 32% | 32% | 45% | 48% | |
| Irish Premier Division | 74/162 | 46% | -19.1% | 22% | 32% | 32% | 48% | 41% | |
| Championship | 48/106 | 45% | -9.1% | 26% | 29% | 29% | 49% | 38% | |
| Serie B | 27/60 | 45% | -8.1% | 28% | 27% | 27% | 47% | 39% | |
| Argentina Primera Division | 193/430 | 45% | -8.7% | 26% | 30% | 30% | 47% | 38% | |
| Scottish Premiership | 21/47 | 45% | -27.0% | 36% | 19% | 19% | 42% | 50% | |
| Ligue 2 | 31/70 | 44% | -11.4% | 21% | 34% | 34% | 43% | 48% | |
| K League | 78/186 | 42% | -16.3% | 25% | 33% | 33% | 41% | 44% | |
| League One | 42/101 | 42% | -16.3% | 28% | 31% | 31% | 41% | 43% | |
| Liga MX | 38/97 | 39% | -31.5% | 34% | 27% | 27% | 44% | 31% | |
| League Two | 43/112 | 38% | -23.6% | 26% | 36% | 36% | 48% | 16% |
Look up a team or league
Search any team with at least 3 favourite appearances this season, or search a league name to list every qualifying team in that competition.
Most price-reliable teams
Teams whose results as favourites and underdogs most often matched the market hierarchy this season.
Most price-reliable teamsFavourites that hold up this season
| Team | Reliability | Priced right | Fav win % | W/D/L | Fav ROI | League | Underdog win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +100.7% | National League | 29% | |
| FC Barcelona | 8/8 | 100% | 8/0/0 | +19.1% | La Liga | - | |
| Hertha BSC | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +109.8% | Bundesliga 2 | 100% | |
| KAA Gent | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +107.3% | Belgian Pro League | 50% | |
| Manchester City | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +67.0% | Premier League | - | |
| Porto | 7/7 | 100% | 7/0/0 | +24.0% | Primeira Liga | 100% | |
| Rapid Wien | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +74.8% | Austrian Bundesliga | 50% | |
| Sabah | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +69.8% | Champions League | 0% | |
| Sporting Charleroi | 7/7 | 100% | 7/0/0 | +100.1% | Belgian Pro League | 0% | |
| København | 8/9 | 89% | 8/0/1 | +51.2% | Danish Superliga | 0% | |
| Lugano | 8/9 | 89% | 8/1/0 | +64.7% | Swiss Super League | 100% | |
| Al Hilal | 7/8 | 88% | 7/0/1 | +11.0% | Saudi Pro League | - | |
| Celtic | 7/8 | 88% | 7/0/1 | +18.5% | Scottish Premiership | - | |
| Club Brugge | 7/8 | 88% | 7/0/1 | +16.1% | Belgian Pro League | - | |
| MSV Duisburg | 7/8 | 88% | 7/0/1 | +51.0% | 3. Liga | - |
Least price-reliable teams
Teams that beat the price as underdogs or fail as favourites more often - higher upset / draw noise.
Least price-reliable teamsUpset and draw noise this season
| Team | Reliability | Priced right | Fav win % | W/D/L | Fav ROI | League | Underdog win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGF | 0/6 | 0% | 0/5/1 | -100.0% | Danish Superliga | 0% | |
| Widzew Łódź | 0/7 | 0% | 0/5/2 | -100.0% | Ekstraklasa | 33% | |
| Deportivo Riestra | 1/13 | 8% | 1/8/4 | -78.2% | Argentina Primera Division | 13% | |
| Montreal Impact | 1/8 | 13% | 1/5/2 | -74.5% | MLS | 25% | |
| Hibernian | 1/7 | 14% | 1/1/5 | -68.6% | Scottish Premiership | 100% | |
| Raków Częstochowa | 1/7 | 14% | 1/0/6 | -73.6% | Ekstraklasa | 0% | |
| Minnesota United | 2/13 | 15% | 2/5/6 | -66.8% | MLS | 33% | |
| Austin | 1/6 | 17% | 1/3/2 | -68.3% | MLS | 27% | |
| Chelmsford City | 1/6 | 17% | 1/5/0 | -67.2% | National League South | 25% | |
| Cremonese | 1/6 | 17% | 1/3/2 | -69.2% | Serie B | - | |
| Famalicão | 1/6 | 17% | 1/3/2 | -67.0% | Primeira Liga | 0% | |
| Farnborough | 1/6 | 17% | 1/1/4 | -63.3% | National League South | 50% | |
| Leicester City | 1/6 | 17% | 1/2/3 | -67.7% | League One | 50% | |
| Maidenhead United | 1/6 | 17% | 1/4/1 | -70.8% | National League South | 40% | |
| Northampton Town | 1/6 | 17% | 1/3/2 | -71.3% | League Two | 0% |
Most effective underdogs
Teams with the highest win rate when priced as the longer side (minimum underdog appearances apply). Underdog profit is calculated on a flat 1 unit placed on them in each of those games.
Most effective underdogsHighest underdog win rates this season
| Team | Underdog record | W/D/L | Underdog win % | Underdog pts | ROI | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 4/4 | 4/0/0 | 100% | 12 | +167.8% | Allsvenskan |
| Almere City | 3/3 | 3/0/0 | 100% | 9 | +172.7% | Eerste Divisie |
| Górnik Zabrze | 3/3 | 3/0/0 | 100% | 9 | +175.7% | Ekstraklasa |
| OFI | 3/3 | 3/0/0 | 100% | 9 | +378.0% | Europa League |
| Palmeiras | 3/3 | 3/0/0 | 100% | 9 | +214.0% | Brazil Serie A |
| King's Lynn Town | 5/6 | 5/0/1 | 83% | 15 | +124.3% | National League North |
| Alanyaspor | 3/4 | 3/1/0 | 75% | 10 | +170.8% | Turkish Super Lig |
| Djurgården | 3/4 | 3/1/0 | 75% | 10 | +128.0% | Allsvenskan |
| Oxford United | 3/4 | 3/0/1 | 75% | 9 | +157.3% | League One |
| Varaždin | 3/4 | 3/0/1 | 75% | 9 | +111.8% | Croatian First League |
| Viktoria Köln | 3/4 | 3/0/1 | 75% | 9 | +111.3% | 3. Liga |
| Atlas | 5/7 | 5/1/1 | 71% | 16 | +144.3% | Liga MX |
| Stenhousemuir | 5/7 | 5/1/1 | 71% | 16 | +181.1% | Scottish Championship |
| Ferencváros | 4/6 | 4/2/0 | 67% | 14 | +182.3% | Europa League |
| Hereford | 4/6 | 4/1/1 | 67% | 13 | +97.3% | National League North |