Market Reliability Index
Which leagues tend to follow the bookies' prices and which throw up the most upsets? Ranked by how often favourites win, draw or get beaten - you can choose the leagues and teams you trust
Data updated 25 October 2026.
Leagues ranked by price reliability
Select any column heading to re-sort. On smaller screens swipe sideways to see every column; the league name stays pinned. Small-sample leagues are flagged when fewer than 30 priced matches have been played. Use the share buttons to download or post the table.
Market Reliability Index46 leagues · updated 25 October 2026
| Austrian Bundesliga | 35/54 | 65% | +15.0% | 19% | 17% | 17% | 76% | 48% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greek Super League | 31/48 | 65% | +7.1% | 15% | 21% | 21% | 66% | 63% | |
| Belgian Pro League | 44/71 | 62% | +11.6% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 63% | 61% | |
| Champions League | 88/143 | 62% | +1.2% | 20% | 18% | 18% | 66% | 50% | |
| Europa League | 80/134 | 60% | +0.2% | 21% | 19% | 19% | 66% | 50% | |
| Europa Conference League | 174/293 | 59% | -5.6% | 15% | 26% | 26% | 63% | 53% | |
| Serie A | 41/70 | 59% | +4.4% | 26% | 16% | 16% | 61% | 54% | |
| Eliteserien | 104/182 | 57% | -2.7% | 23% | 20% | 20% | 61% | 48% | |
| National League | 93/164 | 57% | +7.4% | 26% | 18% | 18% | 54% | 64% | |
| UEFA Nations League | 58/103 | 56% | -8.1% | 18% | 26% | 26% | 55% | 59% | |
| Czech First League | 50/89 | 56% | +3.2% | 20% | 24% | 24% | 55% | 59% | |
| Saudi Pro League | 50/89 | 56% | -14.1% | 18% | 26% | 26% | 51% | 64% | |
| La Liga | 49/89 | 55% | -2.5% | 17% | 28% | 28% | 54% | 57% | |
| Eerste Divisie | 65/120 | 54% | +0.1% | 26% | 20% | 20% | 61% | 42% | |
| Swiss Super League | 34/63 | 54% | -2.1% | 30% | 16% | 16% | 52% | 57% | |
| Ekstraklasa | 55/102 | 54% | +10.5% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 56% | 48% | |
| Primeira Liga | 39/73 | 53% | -10.4% | 22% | 25% | 25% | 52% | 55% | |
| Turkish Super Lig | 39/73 | 53% | -4.0% | 27% | 19% | 19% | 54% | 52% | |
| Scottish Championship | 31/58 | 53% | -5.4% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 54% | 52% | |
| Bundesliga | 32/60 | 53% | -4.5% | 25% | 22% | 22% | 59% | 42% | |
| Copa Libertadores | 82/154 | 53% | -6.4% | 20% | 27% | 27% | 54% | 50% | |
| J League | 60/113 | 53% | -1.1% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 54% | 51% | |
| Croatian First League | 27/51 | 53% | -15.7% | 28% | 20% | 20% | 64% | 33% | |
| Bundesliga 2 | 40/76 | 53% | +8.6% | 16% | 32% | 32% | 56% | 46% | |
| Eredivisie | 43/82 | 52% | -15.0% | 20% | 28% | 28% | 42% | 70% | |
| Segunda Division | 60/115 | 52% | +2.9% | 27% | 21% | 21% | 53% | 50% | |
| Allsvenskan | 99/190 | 52% | -6.6% | 26% | 22% | 22% | 54% | 49% | |
| Brazil Serie A | 162/313 | 52% | -2.5% | 20% | 28% | 28% | 54% | 42% | |
| Ligue 1 | 33/64 | 52% | -5.2% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 53% | 50% | |
| Danish Superliga | 34/67 | 51% | -9.6% | 19% | 30% | 30% | 58% | 41% | |
| National League North | 73/150 | 49% | -3.8% | 30% | 21% | 21% | 52% | 39% | |
| MLS | 219/450 | 49% | -9.9% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 50% | 45% | |
| National League South | 65/134 | 49% | -6.4% | 25% | 27% | 27% | 42% | 62% | |
| Premier League | 34/71 | 48% | -13.8% | 23% | 30% | 30% | 48% | 48% | |
| Championship | 63/132 | 48% | -4.8% | 25% | 27% | 27% | 47% | 49% | |
| Colombian Primera Division | 159/334 | 48% | -12.6% | 20% | 32% | 32% | 50% | 42% | |
| Ligue 2 | 40/86 | 47% | -6.8% | 23% | 30% | 30% | 43% | 54% | |
| League One | 62/136 | 46% | -10.6% | 26% | 29% | 29% | 47% | 42% | |
| Irish Premier Division | 79/174 | 45% | -20.0% | 24% | 31% | 31% | 50% | 38% | |
| Argentina Primera Division | 201/451 | 45% | -9.6% | 26% | 29% | 29% | 47% | 39% | |
| Scottish Premiership | 23/53 | 43% | -29.0% | 36% | 21% | 21% | 44% | 42% | |
| 3. Liga | 43/100 | 43% | -16.0% | 33% | 24% | 24% | 42% | 44% | |
| Liga MX | 50/117 | 43% | -23.6% | 31% | 27% | 27% | 43% | 42% | |
| Serie B | 30/71 | 42% | -13.5% | 30% | 28% | 28% | 43% | 40% | |
| K League | 83/198 | 42% | -16.7% | 24% | 34% | 34% | 41% | 44% | |
| League Two | 60/147 | 41% | -17.4% | 24% | 35% | 35% | 49% | 22% |
Look up a team or league
Search any team with at least 3 favourite appearances this season, or search a league name to list every qualifying team in that competition.
Most price-reliable teams
Teams whose results as favourites and underdogs most often matched the market hierarchy this season.
Most price-reliable teamsFavourites that hold up this season
| Team | Reliability | Priced right | Fav win % | W/D/L | Fav ROI | League | Underdog win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altrincham | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +100.7% | National League | 38% | |
| FC Barcelona | 9/9 | 100% | 9/0/0 | +21.8% | La Liga | - | |
| Inter Milan | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +34.3% | Serie A | - | |
| KAA Gent | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +107.3% | Belgian Pro League | 50% | |
| Manchester City | 7/7 | 100% | 7/0/0 | +60.6% | Premier League | - | |
| Panathinaikos | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +44.7% | Greek Super League | 0% | |
| Porto | 7/7 | 100% | 7/0/0 | +24.0% | Primeira Liga | 100% | |
| Rapid Wien | 7/7 | 100% | 7/0/0 | +68.0% | Austrian Bundesliga | 50% | |
| Sabah | 6/6 | 100% | 6/0/0 | +69.8% | Champions League | 20% | |
| Sporting Charleroi | 7/7 | 100% | 7/0/0 | +100.1% | Belgian Pro League | 0% | |
| Al Hilal | 9/10 | 90% | 9/0/1 | +19.4% | Saudi Pro League | - | |
| Celtic | 8/9 | 89% | 8/0/1 | +22.6% | Scottish Premiership | - | |
| Lugano | 8/9 | 89% | 8/1/0 | +64.7% | Swiss Super League | 100% | |
| Al Ahli | 7/8 | 88% | 7/0/1 | +20.8% | Saudi Pro League | 0% | |
| Club Brugge | 7/8 | 88% | 7/0/1 | +16.1% | Belgian Pro League | - |
Least price-reliable teams
Teams that beat the price as underdogs or fail as favourites more often - higher upset / draw noise.
Least price-reliable teamsUpset and draw noise this season
| Team | Reliability | Priced right | Fav win % | W/D/L | Fav ROI | League | Underdog win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham United | 0/6 | 0% | 0/4/2 | -100.0% | League Two | 29% | |
| Widzew Łódź | 0/8 | 0% | 0/6/2 | -100.0% | Ekstraklasa | 25% | |
| Deportivo Riestra | 1/14 | 7% | 1/9/4 | -79.8% | Argentina Primera Division | 13% | |
| Montreal Impact | 1/9 | 11% | 1/5/3 | -77.3% | MLS | 24% | |
| Hibernian | 1/8 | 13% | 1/1/6 | -72.5% | Scottish Premiership | 100% | |
| AGF | 1/7 | 14% | 1/5/1 | -78.1% | Danish Superliga | 0% | |
| Famalicão | 1/7 | 14% | 1/3/3 | -71.7% | Primeira Liga | 0% | |
| Raków Częstochowa | 1/7 | 14% | 1/0/6 | -73.6% | Ekstraklasa | 25% | |
| Aldosivi | 1/6 | 17% | 1/3/2 | -58.8% | Argentina Primera Division | 4% | |
| Austin | 1/6 | 17% | 1/3/2 | -68.3% | MLS | 25% | |
| Chelmsford City | 1/6 | 17% | 1/5/0 | -67.2% | National League South | 25% | |
| Colchester United | 1/6 | 17% | 1/4/1 | -64.2% | League Two | 0% | |
| Cremonese | 1/6 | 17% | 1/3/2 | -69.2% | Serie B | 0% | |
| Farnborough | 1/6 | 17% | 1/1/4 | -63.3% | National League South | 60% | |
| King's Lynn Town | 1/6 | 17% | 1/2/3 | -71.2% | National League North | 71% |
Most effective underdogs
Teams with the highest win rate when priced as the longer side (minimum underdog appearances apply). Underdog profit is calculated on a flat 1 unit placed on them in each of those games.
Most effective underdogsHighest underdog win rates this season
| Team | Underdog record | W/D/L | Underdog win % | Underdog pts | ROI | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sirius | 4/4 | 4/0/0 | 100% | 12 | +167.8% | Allsvenskan |
| Górnik Zabrze | 3/3 | 3/0/0 | 100% | 9 | +175.7% | Ekstraklasa |
| Palmeiras | 3/3 | 3/0/0 | 100% | 9 | +214.0% | Brazil Serie A |
| Djurgården | 3/4 | 3/1/0 | 75% | 10 | +128.0% | Allsvenskan |
| Lazio | 3/4 | 3/1/0 | 75% | 10 | +191.3% | Serie A |
| Lorient | 3/4 | 3/1/0 | 75% | 10 | +208.8% | Ligue 1 |
| Almere City | 3/4 | 3/0/1 | 75% | 9 | +104.5% | Eerste Divisie |
| Pogoń Szczecin | 3/4 | 3/0/1 | 75% | 9 | +131.3% | Ekstraklasa |
| Hereford | 5/7 | 5/1/1 | 71% | 16 | +124.1% | National League North |
| King's Lynn Town | 5/7 | 5/1/1 | 71% | 16 | +92.3% | National League North |
| Ferencváros | 4/6 | 4/2/0 | 67% | 14 | +182.3% | Europa League |
| VVV | 4/6 | 4/0/2 | 67% | 12 | +130.0% | Eerste Divisie |
| Emmen | 2/3 | 2/1/0 | 67% | 7 | +75.0% | Eerste Divisie |
| Independiente Rivadavia | 2/3 | 2/1/0 | 67% | 7 | +209.3% | Copa Libertadores |
| Kashiwa Reysol | 2/3 | 2/1/0 | 67% | 7 | +78.3% | J League |