Market Reliability Index
Which leagues tend to follow the bookies' prices and which throw up the most upsets? Ranked by how often favourites win, draw or get beaten - you can choose the leagues and teams you trust
Data updated 10 September 2026.
Leagues ranked by price reliability
Select any column heading to re-sort. On smaller screens swipe sideways to see every column; the league name stays pinned. Small-sample leagues are flagged when fewer than 30 priced matches have been played. Use the share buttons to download or post the table.
Market Reliability Index45 leagues · updated 10 September 2026
| Austrian Bundesligasmall sample | 20/29 | 2.22 | 69% | 17% | 14% | 14% | 78% | 55% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greek Super Leaguesmall sample | 13/20 | 1.86 | 65% | 15% | 20% | 20% | 69% | 57% | |
| Serie A | 19/30 | 1.73 | 63% | 23% | 13% | 13% | 55% | 88% | |
| Croatian First Leaguesmall sample | 18/29 | 1.64 | 62% | 24% | 14% | 14% | 75% | 33% | |
| Czech First League | 32/52 | 1.60 | 62% | 17% | 21% | 21% | 59% | 67% | |
| Champions League | 59/98 | 1.51 | 60% | 19% | 20% | 20% | 63% | 52% | |
| Belgian Pro League | 27/45 | 1.50 | 60% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 61% | 59% | |
| Eredivisie | 25/42 | 1.47 | 60% | 17% | 24% | 24% | 39% | 84% | |
| Europa Conference League | 151/257 | 1.42 | 59% | 16% | 25% | 25% | 62% | 53% | |
| Europa League | 46/80 | 1.35 | 58% | 21% | 21% | 21% | 69% | 39% | |
| Eliteserien | 86/152 | 1.30 | 57% | 23% | 20% | 20% | 61% | 47% | |
| Swiss Super League | 22/39 | 1.29 | 56% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 54% | 64% | |
| National League | 39/71 | 1.22 | 55% | 27% | 18% | 18% | 55% | 56% | |
| J League | 33/60 | 1.22 | 55% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 61% | 46% | |
| Primeira Liga | 23/42 | 1.21 | 55% | 17% | 29% | 29% | 56% | 53% | |
| Danish Superliga | 23/42 | 1.21 | 55% | 19% | 26% | 26% | 60% | 47% | |
| Copa Libertadores | 77/143 | 1.17 | 54% | 20% | 26% | 26% | 56% | 49% | |
| La Liga | 22/41 | 1.16 | 54% | 20% | 27% | 27% | 53% | 55% | |
| Scottish Premiership | 16/30 | 1.14 | 53% | 27% | 20% | 20% | 50% | 60% | |
| Saudi Pro League | 26/49 | 1.13 | 53% | 20% | 27% | 27% | 48% | 60% | |
| National League South | 44/86 | 1.05 | 51% | 23% | 26% | 26% | 43% | 72% | |
| Allsvenskan | 79/155 | 1.04 | 51% | 26% | 23% | 23% | 55% | 45% | |
| National League North | 47/93 | 1.02 | 51% | 31% | 18% | 18% | 53% | 44% | |
| Bundesligasmall sample | 9/18 | 1.00 | 50% | 33% | 17% | 17% | 64% | 29% | |
| Ekstraklasa | 29/58 | 1.00 | 50% | 22% | 28% | 28% | 51% | 47% | |
| Bundesliga 2 | 18/36 | 1.00 | 50% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 41% | 78% | |
| MLS | 169/343 | 0.97 | 49% | 25% | 26% | 26% | 51% | 43% | |
| Colombian Primera Division | 132/268 | 0.97 | 49% | 18% | 33% | 33% | 51% | 45% | |
| Brazil Serie A | 125/256 | 0.95 | 49% | 23% | 28% | 28% | 51% | 39% | |
| Eerste Divisie | 25/52 | 0.93 | 48% | 33% | 19% | 19% | 55% | 37% | |
| 3. Liga | 19/40 | 0.90 | 48% | 35% | 18% | 18% | 46% | 50% | |
| Turkish Super Lig | 17/36 | 0.89 | 47% | 33% | 19% | 19% | 46% | 50% | |
| Premier League | 14/30 | 0.88 | 47% | 20% | 33% | 33% | 48% | 44% | |
| Segunda Division | 20/44 | 0.83 | 46% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 47% | 40% | |
| Scottish Championshipsmall sample | 11/25 | 0.79 | 44% | 24% | 32% | 32% | 47% | 38% | |
| Argentina Primera Division | 164/372 | 0.79 | 44% | 27% | 29% | 29% | 47% | 37% | |
| Championship | 28/65 | 0.76 | 43% | 28% | 29% | 29% | 46% | 33% | |
| Serie B | 13/30 | 0.76 | 43% | 37% | 20% | 20% | 44% | 40% | |
| League Two | 25/59 | 0.74 | 42% | 20% | 37% | 37% | 54% | 17% | |
| Irish Premier Division | 61/143 | 0.74 | 43% | 23% | 34% | 34% | 46% | 37% | |
| Ligue 2 | 19/45 | 0.73 | 42% | 18% | 40% | 40% | 40% | 47% | |
| K League | 69/163 | 0.73 | 42% | 26% | 32% | 32% | 40% | 46% | |
| League One | 24/58 | 0.71 | 41% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 41% | 44% | |
| Ligue 1small sample | 11/27 | 0.69 | 41% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 33% | 56% | |
| Liga MX | 24/59 | 0.69 | 41% | 37% | 22% | 22% | 42% | 38% |
Most price-reliable teams
Teams whose results as favourites and underdogs most often matched the market hierarchy this season.
Most price-reliable teamsFavourites that hold up this season
| Team | Priced right | Score | League | As favourite | Fav win % | Underdog win % | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sabah | 6/6 | 99.00 | Champions League | 6 | 100% | 0% | |
| København | 6/7 | 6.00 | Danish Superliga | 7 | 86% | - | |
| Atlético Nacional | 20/24 | 5.75 | Colombian Primera Division | 24 | 83% | 0% | |
| Lech Poznań | 5/6 | 5.00 | Ekstraklasa | 6 | 83% | - | |
| América | 5/6 | 5.00 | Liga MX | 6 | 83% | - | |
| Al Quadisiya | 5/6 | 5.00 | Saudi Pro League | 6 | 83% | - | |
| Al Hilal | 5/6 | 5.00 | Saudi Pro League | 6 | 83% | - | |
| Ajax | 5/6 | 5.00 | Europa Conference League | 6 | 83% | - | |
| FK Bodo - Glimt | 15/19 | 3.75 | Eliteserien | 19 | 79% | - | |
| Colorado Rapids | 8/10 | 3.60 | MLS | 10 | 80% | 15% | |
| Deportes Tolima | 4/6 | 3.00 | Copa Libertadores | 6 | 67% | 0% | |
| Flamengo | 6/8 | 3.00 | Copa Libertadores | 8 | 75% | - | |
| Rosario Central | 4/6 | 3.00 | Copa Libertadores | 6 | 67% | 0% | |
| Kalmar | 5/9 | 2.80 | Allsvenskan | 9 | 56% | 0% | |
| Viking | 13/17 | 2.80 | Eliteserien | 17 | 77% | 50% |
Least price-reliable teams
Teams that beat the price as underdogs or fail as favourites more often - higher upset / draw noise.
Least price-reliable teamsUpset and draw noise this season
| Team | Priced right | Score | League | As favourite | Fav win % | Underdog win % | Reliability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 1/7 | 0.17 | Liga MX | 7 | 14% | - | |
| Tigre | 3/15 | 0.20 | Argentina Primera Division | 15 | 20% | 44% | |
| Shelbourne | 4/18 | 0.29 | Irish Premier Division | 18 | 22% | 33% | |
| VĂ©lez Sarsfield | 6/15 | 0.32 | Argentina Primera Division | 15 | 40% | 50% | |
| Derry City | 4/17 | 0.32 | Irish Premier Division | 17 | 24% | 25% | |
| Barracas Central | 2/6 | 0.33 | Argentina Primera Division | 6 | 33% | 33% | |
| Häcken | 4/13 | 0.33 | Allsvenskan | 13 | 31% | 57% | |
| Sangju Sangmu | 1/10 | 0.35 | K League | 10 | 10% | 18% | |
| Minnesota United | 2/10 | 0.35 | MLS | 10 | 20% | 39% | |
| Bahia | 5/15 | 0.37 | Brazil Serie A | 15 | 33% | 55% | |
| Once Caldas | 7/17 | 0.40 | Colombian Primera Division | 17 | 41% | 27% | |
| Deportivo Riestra | 1/12 | 0.41 | Argentina Primera Division | 12 | 8% | 17% | |
| Santa Fe | 7/17 | 0.43 | Colombian Primera Division | 17 | 41% | 23% | |
| Internacional | 3/15 | 0.44 | Brazil Serie A | 15 | 20% | 18% | |
| AIK | 4/9 | 0.46 | Allsvenskan | 9 | 44% | 50% |